Some analysts argued that the artillery threat is overstated. With the breakdown of the U. Today North Korea could have 60 or more weapons estimates vary. A recent Rand Corp. Such a capability would move the North into the midrange of nuclear powers. Even then, there would be no direct threat to the United States. However, the U. The primary purpose of the so-called mutual defense treaty between the United States and South Korea is to deter or, if necessary, win a war with the North.
And when better to use it? To paraphrase former U. So long as Kim or his successor believed that a war were winnable or a satisfactory settlement were possible, he likely would retain his nukes.
However, if his forces were broken and in retreat, his calculations would change. The threat to American civilians will be magnified to grotesque proportions, simply because Washington continues to promise to help South Korea. Imagine warheads hitting throughout the Pacific and North America. The United States had little choice but to risk an even larger exchange during the Cold War. America and the Soviet Union were at military odds around the world. But he was the only one detained in out of about one thousand Americans who visited.
Obviously, the North did not routinely arrest U. All had broken North Korean rules. Indeed, Americans have been arrested for political purposes by such nominal allies as Pakistan and Turkey. Americans also have been kidnapped by radical groups when visiting Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Anyway, past abuses are unlikely to recur. In turn, foreigners educate North Koreans, by their very presence refuting regime propaganda. The best hope for peaceful transformation of the North is from the inside.
The greater the foreign contact the better. Second, the administration should end its ban on North Koreans visiting America. Very few North Koreans came to America. They are not allowed to travel freely and certainly not to the United States. Most visitors were government officials, guests of NGOs, and defectors.
Why block any of them? Though a more robust focus on these avenues is unlikely to bear fruit quickly, they offer the prospect to move the needle on the more fundamental changes of governance and priorities inside North Korea. Ultimately, a more pragmatic strategy would better serve U. He served nearly 20 years in the U. Forces Korea.
Intelligence Community or any U. North Korea announced on September 13 that it had tested long-range cruise missiles over the weekend. But despite the test, a spokesperson for the Biden administration said the United States remains prepared to engage with North Korea. Type: Analysis and Commentary.
Early signals indicate the Biden team is prioritizing pressure among many options. Several experts, however, believe this approach will continue to fail because it incorrectly assumes North Korea will yield to coercive tactics and that China will cooperate in this effort. Biegun also said that Kim committed to dismantle and destroy all of North Korea's plutonium and uranium enrichment facilities if the United States takes "corresponding measures. Talks with North Korea's top negotiator 'got nowhere' on denuclearization, sources say.
Biegun's remarks sought to shed a positive light on the "progress" made in relations between the US and the Hermit Kingdom. However, the ultimate goal of the "final, fully verified denuclearization" of North Korea still remains largely out of reach, according to an intelligence assessment released this week.
However, he also took aim at the intelligence assessment, saying he "entirely shares President Trump's frustration with the way this intelligence information was briefed and played out. On Wednesday, Trump publicly chastised his intelligence officials after they contradicted several of his foreign policy claims during a Senate hearing the day prior.
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